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Monday, September 19, 2016

THE SURVIVORSHIP BIAS: BETWEEN ME AND LINDA IKEJI

An old classmate recently tagged me on a group photo on Facebook. It was an old picture that was taken when we were in college many years ago. Out of excitement and more out of curiosity, I decided to view the profile of all my classmates who were tagged in the picture. My concern ranged from what they currently looked like to how their life had turned out. Have the ones who were really exceptional in school turned out to become the most successful in life?  

Back in college we had students who were top performers. They were the A students and the envy of all at every prize-giving day. The rest of us would sit back and watch them as they collected award after award. They were hailed as the stars of the future and they were treated specially because of their brilliance. And by every standard they were successful at that level and got all the attention they deserved.

As I clicked on each and every person, I was surprised to see that not every person turned out as was expected. Remarkably, passing examinations were no longer the basis for distinguishing between success and failure. That day, I learnt the incredible lesson that intelligence has little or no survival value. The measurement of success is not based on intelligence. In a layman’s language, a high IQ doesn’t translate to a high net worth.  
They always say life is a jungle and only the strong will succeed but the harsh reality of life is that successful people aren't always the most hardworking; sometimes they are not the smartest, but more often than not they are simply the luckiest. Luck and timing play a major role in the success story of most people.

Life has become a monopoly where those who are not successful become invisible paving way for all the attention to be focused on the successful and completely forgetting the unsuccessful. But should we neglect people just because they do not simply meet our criteria of success?

A female acquaintance once asked me “When is your blog going to be like Linda Ikeji’s blog”? I knew where she was going, so I replied sarcastically “When people like you are able to read anything apart from gossip”. Every blogger in Nigeria will always be measured with Linda Ikeji and other successful blogs. Because the basis of gauging success in our society has a lot more to do with the material value than potential value. So it's easy to look at Linda Ikeji and think that other bloggers are not hard working or popular. Herein lies what we call the survivorship bias.

According to Wikipedia, survivorship bias is the logical error of concentrating on the people or things that "survived" some process and inadvertently overlooking those that did not because of their lack of visibility. This can lead to false conclusions in several different ways. 

Those who survive are highly celebrated but you don’t get to hear of the people that don’t survive. Survival is very satisfying but it is high time we also celebrate those who by our standard are still struggling to survive. I have been blogging for over three years now. I am not getting all the buzz and bucks at the moment but I know where am headed. I might not be very popular now but I will survive and be celebrated. 

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